For those who wonder if a new energy bill with tough mileage standards will mean that Americans have to squeeze their families into small cars the answer is: probably not.
While it won't be easy for automakers to achieve a fleet average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020 – a mandate the US House is expected to approve this week – they will keep making bigger cars, possibly even sport-utility vehicles, with more efficient engines, experts say.
"You're going to see light-duty trucks with more advanced diesel and hybrid engines giving a 30 percent improvement in fuel economy without huge changes in the basic package," says David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. "These big vehicles aren't going away."
The reason is market-driven. While sales of SUVs have suffered in the past two years as gasoline prices have surged, light trucks overall (which includes SUVs) still outsold cars in North America last month. Large cars and light trucks are more profitable than small cars for automakers. That's why automakers fought so hard for provisions in the new energy bill that would allow them to keep those big vehicles rolling off the assembly line.
The new House legislation, similar to a measure in the Senate, would boost Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for cars for the first time since 1985. The current CAFE standard for cars is 27.5 miles per gallon; it's 22.2 m.p.g. for light trucks. The proposed 35 m.p.g. measure is the result of a compromise announced last Friday by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. John Dingell (D) of Michigan, who fought doggedly to soften the blow for automakers.
The deal he helped engineer continues allowing cars and light trucks to be categorized separately – rather than being merged together – for purposes of fleet fuel averaging. Had the two been merged, it might have forced automakers to do much more to produce downsized vehicles with less towing capacity, Mr. Cole and others say.
While it won't be easy for automakers to achieve a fleet average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020 – a mandate the US House is expected to approve this week – they will keep making bigger cars, possibly even sport-utility vehicles, with more efficient engines, experts say.
"You're going to see light-duty trucks with more advanced diesel and hybrid engines giving a 30 percent improvement in fuel economy without huge changes in the basic package," says David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. "These big vehicles aren't going away."
The reason is market-driven. While sales of SUVs have suffered in the past two years as gasoline prices have surged, light trucks overall (which includes SUVs) still outsold cars in North America last month. Large cars and light trucks are more profitable than small cars for automakers. That's why automakers fought so hard for provisions in the new energy bill that would allow them to keep those big vehicles rolling off the assembly line.
The new House legislation, similar to a measure in the Senate, would boost Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for cars for the first time since 1985. The current CAFE standard for cars is 27.5 miles per gallon; it's 22.2 m.p.g. for light trucks. The proposed 35 m.p.g. measure is the result of a compromise announced last Friday by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. John Dingell (D) of Michigan, who fought doggedly to soften the blow for automakers.
The deal he helped engineer continues allowing cars and light trucks to be categorized separately – rather than being merged together – for purposes of fleet fuel averaging. Had the two been merged, it might have forced automakers to do much more to produce downsized vehicles with less towing capacity, Mr. Cole and others say.
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